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LONDON — British Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Monday evening will face a punishing vote of no confidence by his fellow Conservative Party lawmakers, reflecting anger over lockdown-breaking parties at Downing Street and overall discontent with his leadership, which one former ally branded a “charade.”

Almost as soon as Queen Elizabeth II’s Platinum Jubilee celebrations ended, the party announced that the threshold of 54 no-confidence letters — equal to 15 percent of the party’s lawmakers in Parliament — had been reached and would trigger a vote.

To survive, Johnson needs a simple majority — or 180 votes — of support from his fellow party members, in secret balloting scheduled for between 6 and 8 p.m. local time (1 and 3 p.m. Eastern).

Many political analysts on Monday predicted that Johnson would remain in office, but that the vote could be remarkably close for a prime minister who helped his party win a landslide election in 2019. Johnson’s salvation may be the lack of an obvious successor within his party.

Who could replace Boris Johnson? Here are some possible contenders.

Assuming Johnson wins — and win is a dubious verb for a politician in this position — he will be a wounded leader. He and the Conservatives will struggle to rebuild their brand in the face of soaring inflation and diminished public trust.

Surviving a no-confidence vote under the current rules would insulate Johnson for a year from additional party challenges. But those rules can be changed.

Looming over Monday’s vote was the recollection that Johnson’s predecessor, Theresa May, beat a no-confidence challenge over her failed Brexit deal in 2018, only to be forced to resign the next year.

In opinion surveys, Johnson’s polling numbers are in the dumpster after months of drip-drip revelations about how he allowed his staff to turn his office and residence of 10 Downing Street into an ersatz frat house during the darkest days of the pandemic — with “BYOB” party invites, karaoke singing, fisticuffs and vomiting.

Johnson was booed by some when he attended a jubilee service on Friday at St. Paul’s Cathedral.

In a scathing letter posted Monday on social media, lawmaker Jesse Norman, a former Johnson ally, said the prime minister had presided over a “a culture of casual lawbreaking” at Downing Street.

He added that his frustration extended beyond the scandal, calling Johnson’s policy priorities “deeply questionable.” He mentioned the government’s plan to send some asylum seekers to Rwanda and its threat to violate the Northern Ireland protocol negotiated as part of the Brexit deal.

“For you to prolong this charade by remaining in office not only insults the electorate, and the tens of thousands of people who support, volunteer, represent and campaign for our party,” he wrote. “it makes a decisive change of government at the next election more likely.”

From the prime minister’s defenders, the message on Monday was that Johnson had gotten “the big decisions right” — on Brexit, the pandemic, support for Ukraine — and apologized for his mistakes.

In a letter to Conservative lawmakers, Johnson acknowledged: “I have come under a great deal of fire, and I know that experience has been painful for the whole party.”

He added: “Some of that criticism has perhaps been fair, some less so.”

But he framed the vote as “a golden chance” to “end the media’s favorite obsession” and “get on with the job.”

In communications more focused on the public, Johnson on Monday tweeted a picture of himself on the phone with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. “President [Zelensky] just updated me on the ongoing battle against Russian aggression in the Donbas.”

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Speaking to reporters, Graham Brady, the chair of the 1922 Committee that receives no-confidence letters, said he had told Johnson on Sunday evening that the threshold for a vote had been met.

“He shared my view, which is also in line with the rules that we have in place, that that vote should happen as soon as it could reasonably take place and that would be today.”

Brady did not say how many letters he had received. He said that some of those calling for a no-confidence vote had said it should only take place once jubilee celebrations had ended.

Will Jennings, a politics expert at the University of Southampton, said Conservative politicians were maneuvering now — “after an obvious pause for the jubilee” — as many have calculated that the Partygate scandal “will hang over the PM in the run-up to the next election,” in 2½ years.

Johnson’s critics, Jennings said, have noticed that “voters have moved on from Partygate, they don’t want to hear about Partygate. But they have very made up their minds about Partygate. They think that the prime minister broke the rules, there’s very broad support for him going, and the public don’t see him as trustworthy. This is starting to pose a serious electoral threat to the Conservative Party.”

But there’s no leading successor for Tory lawmakers to rally around.

A YouGov poll of Conservative party members on Monday found that Defense Secretary Ben Wallace, who has played a prominent role in Britain’s response to the war in Ukraine, was the favorite to replace Johnson. But even then, he was the pick of just 12 percent.

Chancellor Rishi Sunak was once considered the party’s Plan B, but he, too, was implicated in Partygate, and he faced a further controversy over his billionaire wife’s tax filing status.

Liz Truss, the foreign secretary who is also one of the favorites to succeed Johnson, tweeted her support: “The prime minister has my 100% backing in today’s vote and I strongly encourage colleagues to support him … He has apologised for mistakes made. We must now focus on economic growth.”

Jeremy Hunt, a former foreign secretary, said in a tweet thread that he would be “voting for change.” Some say he would make a fresh bid for the leadership if Johnson loses.

“Having been trusted with power, Conservative MPs know in our hearts we are not giving the British people the leadership they deserve. We are not offering the integrity, competence and vision necessary to unleash the enormous potential of our country,” he said.

“And because we are no longer trusted by the electorate, who know this too, we are set to lose the next general election.”

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